Jakarta, hitclubapk3 Indonesia
—
Economist PT
Bank Mandiri
(Persero) Tbk predicts
economy
Indonesia grows 5 percent to 5.1 percent throughout 2025.
Head of Macroeconomic & Financial Market Research Dian Ayu Yustina said that the Indonesian economy still has sufficient resilience.
“By looking at various developments
leading indicators
what we have observed during the October-November period, we still see that the Indonesian economy is sufficient
resilient
“It is estimated that economic growth will range between 5 percent – 5.1 percent this year,” he said in the virtual Macro Economic Outlook 4Q-2025, Wednesday (3/12).
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Meanwhile, for the fourth quarter of 2025, Dian estimates that the economy will grow 5.08 percent, mainly driven by the Christmas and New Year (Nataru) period.He said a number of data showed an increase in consumption.
One of them is retail sales data which grew 4.3 percent in October 2025. This figure increased compared to growth of 3.7 percent in the previous month.
Then, the Consumer Confidence Index (IKK) was at 121.2 in October, higher than the previous month’s index of 115.
“Possibly towards the end of the new year, yes we know
seasonal
Usually, the New Year holidays, Christmas and New Year celebrations will encourage consumption levels faster.”And if we look at the trend during the fourth quarter, it looks quite positive, there was a quite significant rebound,” he said.
Meanwhile, the APBN deficit is estimated to reach 2.5 percent of GDP by the end of 2025. He said the fiscal deficit from January – October 2025 is still quite manageable.
Meanwhile, Bank Mandiri Chief Economist Andry Asmoro highlighted banking conditions.He said conditions this year were the opposite of last year.
In 2024, he continued, credit growth will be one of the highest in the last six years, while Third Party Funds will be one of the lowest.
“This year, the DPK position grew quite well, in
low double digits
, in the range of 11 percent but credit growth is relatively stagnant at 7.3 percent.”If we look at the latest developments in DPK, the encouragement or support from the government and also the monetary authority of Bank Indonesia in encouraging domestic liquidity can be seen very clearly,” he explained.
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(fby/sfr)
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