Jakarta, hitclubapk3 Indonesia
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Seedlings
Tropical Cyclone 93S
is currently active in the Indian Ocean region south of Bali-West Nusa Tenggara (NTB), causing indirect impacts in the form of moderate to heavy rain in East Java, Bali and NTB.
Tropical Cyclone 93S itself began to form on December 11 at 07.00 WIB in the area.
The Meteorology, Climatology and Geophysics Agency (BMKG) projects that the circulation center of this tropical cyclone seed will be around 11.9°S 116.7°E and will still be within the TCWC Jakarta Area of Monitoring (AoM) on Friday (12/12) at 19.00 WIB.
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The maximum wind speed around the system is 15 knots or around 28 km/hour and the minimum pressure is around 1010 hPa.
“Based on observations of satellite imagery in the last 6 hours, it shows that there is a slight increase in convective activity which is not yet significant enough around the system,” wrote BMKG in its analysis, Friday (12/12).
“Based on the wind analysis per layer, in the surface layer up to 700 hPa the circulation appears to still be expanding to the south. In the layer 500 hPa and above there is no visible circulation,” he added.
BMKG explained that the seeds of this tropical cyclone are also supported by active Equatorial Rossby waves and low frequency waves around the system, quite warm sea surface temperatures (28 – 29 degrees Celsius), low wind shear (5-10 knots), sufficient divergence in the upper layers and vortices that are in the moderate category in the lower to middle layers.
There are also conditions that do not support the growth of cyclone seeds, namely the air humidity around the system is quite dry, convergence is still weak and there is no strong wind inflow towards the system.
BMKG predicts that in the next 24 hours the intensity of Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S will still be persistent with no increase in maximum winds around the system.
Then, in the next 48-72 hours, the system intensity is predicted to increase slowly with movement tending to be stationary.
“The potential for Tropical Cyclone Seed 93S to develop into a tropical cyclone in the next 24-72 hours is in the low chance category,” said BMKG.
However, tropical cyclone seeds will still have an indirect impact in the form of extreme weather for the next 72 hours.
Areas potentially affected by rain with moderate to heavy intensity include East Java, Bali and NTB.
Then, areas that have the potential to experience moderate waves of 1.25 to 2.5 meters include the Indian Ocean south of East Java to NTT, the southern waters of East Java to NTT, and the southern part of the Bali – Lombok – Alas Strait.
(lum/mic)
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