Jakarta, hitclubapk3 Indonesia
—
Price
crude oil
The world rose slightly to near its highest level in two weeks on Monday (8/12), driven by market expectations ahead of the United States Central Bank’s decision (
The Fed
) question
interest rate
.
The market predicts the Fed will cut its benchmark interest rate this week.This policy is considered to be able to encourage economic growth and energy demand.
Apart from that, the market is also paying close attention to geopolitical risks that threaten oil supplies from Russia and Venezuela.
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The Brent futures contract rose 9 cents or 0.14 percent to US$63.84 per barrel.Meanwhile US West Texas Intermediate (US WTI) rose 8 cents or 0.13 percent to US$60.16 per barrel.
London Stock Exchange Group (LSEG) data shows the market now estimates an 84 percent chance that the Fed will cut interest rates by a quarter point.
However, comments from a number of members of the Fed’s governing board indicate this week’s interest rate meeting could be one of the most ‘divisive’ in recent years.Therefore, the direction of US central bank policy will be the main focus of investors.
In Europe, talks on a Russian-Ukrainian peace deal remain unclear.The debate regarding security guarantees for Kyiv and the status of the territory currently controlled by Russia has not yet reached a resolution.
The US and Russia also have different views on the peace proposal put forward by the administration of US President Donald Trump.
“Trump’s latest push to end the war could trigger changes in oil supplies of more than 2 million barrels per day, depending on the outcome,” wrote ANZ analysts, quoted
Reuters,
Tuesday (8/12).
Commonwealth Bank of Australia analyst Vivek Dhar considers the ceasefire to be the main risk to lower oil prices, while prolonged damage to Russia’s energy infrastructure could be a driving factor in rising prices.
“We expect oversupply concerns to eventually be confirmed, especially when Russian oil flows manage to detour to circumvent existing sanctions. Oil prices are likely to return to near US$60 per barrel through 2026,” Dhar said.
The US has also increased pressure on Venezuela, a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), including through attacks on ships that Trump claims were smuggling drugs, as well as talk of military action to overthrow President Nicolas Maduro.
From Asia, a number of independent refineries in China are speeding up the purchase of Iranian oil which is being sanctioned by the US.China is taking advantage of new import quotas and stocks stored in land tanks.This move by China helps relieve excess supply in the market.
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(pta)
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